Explore actual scenarios where early thesis degradation warnings preserved alpha and prevented drawdowns.
Monitor thesis drivers on both sides of your book to maintain balanced exposure.
Large Tech Position (Long)
THESIS
EPS growth >15% YoY driven by cloud expansion
TRIGGER
Management guides down cloud growth from 30% to "mid-twenties"
ACTION TAKEN
Reduced position by 40%, shifted to competitor
Avoided -8% drawdown post-earnings
Alert triggered 3 days before earnings
Detected language change in pre-announcement
Recommended protective puts saved 320bps
Retail Short Position
THESIS
Market share loss to e-commerce accelerating
TRIGGER
Competitor announces store closures, shifting thesis
ACTION TAKEN
Covered 50% of short before squeeze
Prevented 12% loss on position
Real-time monitoring of competitor filings
Narrative shift detected in local news
Timely exit before crowded unwind
Airlines Long/Short
THESIS
Relative value based on cost structure
TRIGGER
Fuel hedging advantage eroding
ACTION TAKEN
Flipped pair based on new dynamics
Generated +6.4% alpha vs flat
Monitored oil futures and hedging disclosures
Detected thesis convergence early
Systematic rebalancing recommendations
$47M+
Losses prevented YTD
94%
Alert accuracy rate
14 days
Average early warning
3.6%
Alpha preserved per position
Schedule a demo to see how ThesisGuard would monitor your specific positions and investment strategies.